Innovation's Econometrics : PATENT

Plateau du Kirchberg Luxemburg
November 28 & 29 , 1996

Value - Duration

An analysis of european (EPO) patent renewals: a first (or quasi-final?) step towars patent values estimation

Departamento de Economia Aplicada
Universidad de la Laguna


This paper uses European Patent (EPO) renewals data to draw a factual profile of patent life. The analysis of this profile provides information to limit the range and type of assumptions made in the estimation of the value of patent rights studies.

This reduces the noise to signal ratio in the patent count variable a measure of the value of patented ideas. The conclusions obtained in earlier studies can thereby be sharpened.


Incidences de la loi belge sur les brevets au niveau des PME-PMI

Professeur D.M. VERHEDE Dr.Ir & J.P. CARPENTIER Dr.


This paper examines the results of the Belgian Patent Survey with the purpose of demonstrating how Belgian Patent Law can oriente the patent policy of firm.

The ? of the Belgian Patent Law is a double system of duration for the patent : six or twenty years.

The survey allowed answers to questions on the type of firm (SME, large firms), the type of activities, the benefits to use intellectual properties. The application of multivariate segmentation techniques to the data of the Belgian Patent survey may exha?ce the comprehension of patent policy.



A. Nihat DILEK and Sübidey TOGAN
Bilkent University Department of Economics,
06533 Ankara, Turkey

This study consists of two parts. In the first part, we aim to analyze the welfare effects of patent system theoretically. We use a North - South framework and evaluate the effects of following variables ; patent duration, technological lag, consumers’ preferences and other parameters of the model. We also aim to apply this model to real life data. However data limitations restrict us to use this model completely. Therefore in the second part of this study, we try to evaluate the determinants of patent data. Here patent data may be considered as a proxy of technological improvements or namely output of R&D. In the literature, there are many valuable studies which use patent data and explore the determinants of it. However raw patent data is generally misleading. Since an extensive portion of it is commercially valueless, in this study we eliminate those patents and study on processed patent data.

We consider European Union as North and Turkey as South. We assume that all innovation takes place in the North. In this framework we neglect Turkish oriented patents and only study on European originated patents. We use four groups of data to explain the time series patent data. These are (a) absorbability, (b) market factors, (c) strength of patent protection, and finally (d) expectations.


Patent Renewals, Obsolescence and the Modelling of Firm Performance: Synopsis of a Proposed Paper for the Econometrics of Innovation Conference.

Derek Bosworth and Gregory Jabome

This paper argues that the exisitng literature fails to model the dynamics of the competitive process. The principal thrust of the paper is that, although accountants and economists approach the issue of the value of intellectual property, such as patents, from different angles, both get it wrong, if for different reasons. In doing so, it attempts to demonstrate that the assumptions that have underpinned the use of renewal data in exploring the commercial value of patents are untenable. The main problem is that the assumption of a constant rates of depreciation of the 'stock of knowledge' is unlikely to be true except under the most heroic of assumptions. The paper uses UK renewal information over the post-war period as a quasi-panel, to estimate the effects of competition between new and existing inventions, controlling for the prevailing economic conditions and renewal costs. In this way, it is able to use 'hazard rate' analysis to explain the attrition from the patent stock, estimating rates of obsolescence that might be of use in both economic and accounting contexts. It also explores a number of other issues, such as whether UK domestic inventions have become increasingly less competitive vis vis their foreign counterparts.